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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the greatest upset.

But the current competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising in unison. During an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still